Testing Criminal Career Theories in British and American Longitudinal Studies

John F. MacLeod, David P. Farrington (University of Cambridge)

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English

Cambridge University Press
07 July 2022

Research & information: general; Social services & welfare, criminology; Crime & criminology

Series: Elements in Criminology

Most criminological theories are not truly scientific, since they do not yield exact quantitative predictions of criminal career features, such as the prevalence and frequency of offending at different ages. This Element aims to make progress towards more scientific criminological theories. A simple theory is described, based on measures of the probability of reoffending and the frequency of offending. Three offender categories are identified: high risk/high rate, high risk/low rate, and low risk/low rate. It is demonstrated that this theory accurately predicts key criminal career features in three datasets: in England the Offenders Index (national data), the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development (CSDD) and in America the Pittsburgh Youth Study (PYS). The theory is then extended in the CSDD and PYS by identifying early risk factors that predict the three categories. Criminological theorists are encouraged to replicate and build on our research to develop scientific theories that yield quantitative predictions.

By: John F. MacLeod, David P. Farrington (University of Cambridge)
Imprint: Cambridge University Press
Country of Publication: United Kingdom
Edition: New edition
Dimensions: Height: 228mm, Width: 151mm, Spine: 6mm
Weight: 140g
ISBN: 9781009018067
ISBN 10: 100901806X
Series: Elements in Criminology
Pages: 75
Publication Date: 07 July 2022
Audience: General/trade , ELT Advanced
Format: Paperback
Publisher's Status: Active

1. Introduction; 2. The Offenders Index (OI) and the Risk/Rate Model; 3. Application to the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development (CSDD); 4. Childhood Prediction of Risk/Rate categories in the CSDD; 5. Application to the Pittsburgh Youth Study (PYS); 6. Childhood Prediction of Risk/Rate Categories in the PYS; 7. Final Conclusions.